Trend On Verge
‘Trend On Verge’ delivers sharp insights on global markets and emerging tech.
Stay updated with expert-backed analysis on economy, big tech, AI, and more — five times a week.
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U.S. Government Shutdown Fallout: Why CPI and Jobs Data Aren’t “Working Normally” in December — and Why Markets Are More Volatile
✔ The 2025 U.S. government shutdown led to the cancellation of October CPI, creating a major inflation data gap.
✔ October’s unemployment rate was not released for the first time since 1948, weakening labor market assessment.
✔ November CPI may reflect missing data, delayed pricing, and timing distortions, making it abnormal.
✔ In this environment, policy signals and multi-month trends matter more than single data points. -
AI Spending Hits a Reality Check: Oracle and Broadcom Earnings Reveal Why Rising AI CAPEX Isn’t Lifting Stock Prices Yet
✔ Oracle’s AI demand is rising, but higher CAPEX and cautious guidance pressured its stock.
✔ Broadcom posted strong AI revenue growth, yet margin concerns drove shares lower.
✔ Investors are shifting focus from AI revenue growth to margins and free cash flow.
✔ The AI investment cycle is moving from expansion to profitability validation. -
AVGO Earnings Beat: AI Chip Demand Surges, but Why Did Broadcom’s Stock React Mixed?
✔ Broadcom delivered a strong earnings beat, driven by rapid AI semiconductor growth.
✔ The company raised its next-quarter revenue forecast to $19.1B, including $8.2B in AI chip sales.
✔ AVGO stock reacted mixed due to valuation pressure and limited customer disclosures.
✔ Broadcom’s long-term strategy—AI accelerators, networking chips, and VMware—supports durable structural growth. -
Oracle’s Earnings Shock: Is the $523B Backlog Masking the First Signs of an AI Cloud Demand Slowdown?
✔ Oracle posted $16.06B in quarterly revenue, missing Wall Street’s estimate and triggering a 7–10% after-hours selloff.
✔ OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) grew 60–70% YoY, yet still fell short of the aggressive expectations tied to AI cloud demand.
✔ Legacy software revenue dropped 21%, signaling a deeper structural transition.
✔ Oracle’s $523B RPO backlog surged, but nearly $300B is linked to OpenAI, raising concerns about customer concentration and revenue visibility.
✔ The company is accelerating data-center buildouts through large-scale debt issuance, contributing to –$13.18B in trailing free cash flow and projections of $290B in adjusted debt by 2028.
✔ Oracle maintains a bold long-term target of $166B in cloud infrastructure revenue by FY2030, despite near-term financial strain. -
Will the Fed’s December 2025 Rate Cut Really Boost the S&P 500?
✔ Markets assign roughly an 89% probability to a 25 bps December rate cut.
✔ The S&P 500 trades near record highs, raising concerns that the move may already be priced in.
✔ Historically, 70% of first-rate-cut cycles led to positive 1-year S&P 500 returns, but recession-driven cuts were exceptions.
✔ The 2025 environment is unique: elevated valuations, inflation not yet at 2%, and a softening labor market complicate the outlook.
✔ Investors may benefit from preparing for three possible outcomes—dovish, neutral, or hawkish cuts—each shaping portfolios differently. -
Is the Magnificent Seven Still Undervalued in 2026? Why Wall Street Keeps Buying Nvidia and Big Tech
✔ The Magnificent Seven now represents ~35% of the S&P 500, pushing market concentration to historic highs.
✔ Alphabet leads 2025 M7 performance, while Nvidia’s AI infrastructure demand continues to exceed expectations.
✔ Wall Street warns of AI-driven concentration risk, yet expects AI capex and cloud spending to remain strong into 2026.
✔ Investors may benefit from a “growth core + diversified satellite” strategy rather than equal-weight exposure to all seven stocks.
